Assessing the personalization of voting behaviour in post-communist
polities: under what circumstances do leaders
matter more?
Project ID: PN-II-RU-PD-2012-3-0567
Project supported by a research grant of the Romanian Ministry of Education, CNCS-UEFISCDI
Contract no. 56/30.04.2013
Time frame: May 1st, 2013 - October 31st, 2015
Research team:
Dr. Andrei Gheorghiţă (post-doctoral researcher)
Dr. Grigore Pop-Elecheş (mentor)
Project description (summary):
Political leaders are credited with a significant and growing impact on the election results in Western societies. This long-term shift from political parties to leaders as main actors on the electoral scene is explained as an aggregate effect of a sequence of transformations: changes in the patterns of mass communication in the age of electronic media, erosion of traditional alignments, increase in the complexity of political issues correlated with a shift of interest from local to national politics, the internationalization of politics. On the other side, the Eastern post-communist block may have traced a different pathway to the same outcome of personalization, given the impact of several locally relevant variables: a tradition of strong leaders, further strengthened in the recent totalitarian past, a widespread option towards semi-presidential systems, with directly elected presidents and frequent unclear power settlements between the president and the prime-minister, a lack of solid party alignments, and an accelerated development of media systems. This project aims to investigate the magnitude and sources of variation in leader effects in the particular context of new democracies in Central and Eastern Europe. Two core directions are to be investigated: (1) the magnitude and evolution of leader effects in CEE countries during post-communism; (2) the variations in leader effects in relation to voter, leader, party and system characteristics, but also to campaign context.
Project objectives:
(1) To devise a region-specific theoretical and conceptual framework of analysis for the personalization of electoral politics in CEE post-communist countries.
(2) To assess the magnitude and evolution of leader effects on party vote in CEE countries during the transition and democratization period.
(3) To assess the variations in the magnitude of leader effects that are due to individual factors (both voter characteristics and leader characteristics), to party-related factors, and to system-specific factors.
(4) To investigate the mechanisms by which campaign discourse activates candidate-specific personality traits that become salient for an electoral race.
Methodology:
In order to reach the abovementioned objectives, the research design employs a rather complex ensemble of both quantitative and qualitative methods and tools. Broadly, it combines (a) statistical modelling on large-scale datasets for O2 and O3 (namely CSES modules 1-3 and further) with (b) document analysis for O1 and O3 (on party manifestoes, electoral legislation and candidate vita), (c) focus groups for O4, and media and discourse analysis for O4. Thus, it combines three levels of analysis: country, party, and individual level.
Expected outcomes:
At least two international conference presentations, at least two articles submitted to ISI ranked scientific journals.
Main evolutions:
WP1: Theoretical and methodological substantiation of the project
2013:
• Library stage at the Central European University in Budapest (October 28-November 28).
• Identification and coverage of the newest literature on conditions mediating the manifestation of leader effects:
→ voters characteristics (political involvement, political sophistication, party identification, ideological orientation, news consumption, early vs. late deciders, church attendance, social class, risk orientation, age, sex);
→ leader characteristics (personality traits, incumbent vs. challenger, experience, age, sex);
→ party characteristics (size, ideological family, organisational structure, government vs. opposition, age);
→ system characteristics (party system, electoral system, political system, election type, political polarization).
• Identification and coverage of the literature on electoral systems, party systems and leaders in several CEE countries: Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia.
2014:
• Course of 'Multilevel Modelling' at Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona, Summer School of Survey Methodology (July 9-11).
WP2. Document analysis
2013:
• Coverage of CEE elections: Croatia 2007, Czech Republic 2006 and 2010, Estonia 2011, Latvia 2010, Poland 2005 and 2007, Romania 2009, Slovakia 2010, Slovenia 2008.
2014:
• Coverage of the following CEE elections: Czech Republic 1996, Hungary 1998, Poland 1997, Romania 1996, 2004 and 2012, Russia 1999, Slovenia 1996, Ukraine 1998, Belarus 2008, Montenegro 2012, Serbia 2012.
WP3. Data preparation for longitudinal statistical analysis
2013:
• Preparation of individual level data for the following CEE elections: Croatia 2007, Czech Republic 2006 and 2010, Estonia 2011, Latvia 2010, Poland 2005 and 2007, Romania 2009, Slovakia 2010, Slovenia 2008.
• Identification of additional databases in ZACAT archive.
2014:
• Preparation of individual level data for the following CEE elections: Czech Republic 1996, Hungary 1998, Poland 1997, Romania 1996, 2004 and 2012, Russia 1999, Slovenia 1996, Ukraine 1998, Belarus 2008, Montenegro 2012, Serbia 2012.
• The list of elections, parties and leaders considered can be found here.
WP4. Statistical analysis of large-scale data
2014:
• Models construction and testing for the effects of voter characteristics, party characteristics and candidate characteristics on the magnitude of leader effects.
• Final models run for the impact of voter characteristics and party characteristics on the magnitude of leader effects. Feed-back on the findings received during several international and national conferences.
• For a closer look on the models and variables included, click here.
2015:
• Final models run for the impact of leader characteristics on the magnitude of leader effects. Feed-back on the findings received during two international conferences.
• For a closer look on the models and variables included, click here.
WP5. Data collection for the 2014 presidential election in Romania
2014:
• Focus groups/interviews with voting age respondents investigating how campaign discourse activates candidate-specific traits that become salient for the electoral race.
• First page journal articles on the most salient five candidates in the presidential elections are archived for future analyses on how media frames personal traits. Target journals: Adevărul, Evenimentul Zilei, România liberă, Jurnalul naţional.
• Content of websites of the main presidential candidates (Klaus Iohannis, Victor Ponta, Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, Elena Udrea, Monica Macovei) is saved for further analyses: electoral programmes, promotional materials, press releases, interviews, etc.
2015:
• Interviews with voting age respondents on top politicians personal traits.
WP6. Analysis of interview/focus group and media analysis data
2015:
• Bi-directional approach to understanding how political leaders shape citizens' impressions of their personality traits.
• Analysis of media data to investigate candidates' image priming strategies, applied to first page journal articles (media side) and candidate electoral manifestoes, press releases, interviews, advertising, blog entries (candidate side).
• Assessment of citizens' impressions of candidates' personalities based on interviews/focus groups. Complementary additional information is issued through post-election survey data, with an extensive battery of questions requesting respondents to rate ten personal attributes of Victor Ponta and Klaus Iohannis on a 0-10 scale.
WP7. Dissemination of project's results, reports, and networking
Results
Conference papers:
2015
'Leader characteristics and the personalization of electoral politics in Central and Eastern European democracies' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the 5th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, June 25-27, 2015. (EN)
'The personalization of electoral politics and leader characteristics in the Eastern post-communist bloc' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the 12th Conference of the European Sociological Association, Prague, August 25-28, 2015. (EN)
‘Caracteristici ale liderilor și personalizarea politicii electorale în democrațiile Europei Centrale și de Est’, paper to be presented at the Annual Conference of the Romanian Sociological Society and the International Colloquium of Social Sciences and Communication Studies ACUM 2015, Brașov, November 19-21, 2015. (RO)
2014
'Voter characteristics and the personalization of electoral behaviour in Romania', paper presented at the 2014 International Conference of the Romanian Sociological Society, Iaşi, May 9-10, 2014. (EN)
'The personalization of electoral decision and voter characteristics in a post-communist context', paper presented at the 37th Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Rome, July 4-7, 2014. (EN)
'Election studies in Romania: where are we now?', presentation at the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Plenary Meeting in Berlin, October 8-11, 2014. (EN)
'Party characteristics and leader effects in post-communist polities' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the European Sociological Association (ESA) RN36 Midterm Conference '25 Years after the Communism: East and West of Europe in Search of Solidarity', Gdansk, October 16-18, 2014. (EN)
'Personalization of electoral politics and party characteristics in Central and Eastern European democracies' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the Conference 'What's next for democratic capitalism?', Warsaw, November 7-8, 2014. (EN)
'Candidate-centred electoral politics and party characteristics in new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the Conference 'Ideologies, Values, and Political Behaviours in Central and Eastern Europe', Timişoara, December 12-13, 2014. (RO)
2013
'Caracteristicile liderilor politici şi personalizarea politicii electorale în România postcomunistă', paper presented at the 2013 Annual Conference of the Society of Romanian Sociologists, Iaşi, May 16-18, 2013. (RO)
'Social solidarity in distorted times: Unfolding the Romanian case' (co-author Horatiu Rusu), lucrare prezentata la 11th Conference of the European Sociological Association, Turin, August 28-31, 2013. (EN)
'Caracteristicile personale ale liderilor politici şi impactul acestora asupra deciziei de vot: cazul României', paper presented at the Annual Conference of Research in Sociology and Social Work, Sibiu, October 11-12, 2013. (RO)
'Public spending and social solidarity' (co-author Horatiu Rusu), paper presented at the Annual Conference of Research in Sociology and Social Work, Sibiu, October 11-12, 2013. (EN)
Articles:
Andrei Gheorghiță (2015) Voter Characteristics and Leader Effects in a Post-Communist Context: The Case of the 2012 Legislative Elections in Romania. Romanian Journal of Political Science 15 (1). (ISI impact factor 0.250 - 2014 Journal Citation Reports). Download here.
Mircea Comșa and Andrei Gheorghiță (2016) 'Many', 'half' or 'one out of two'? Assessing the effectiveness of counter-biasing techniques in reducing self-reported turnout. Revista de cercetare și intervenție socială 55. (ISI impact factor 0.798 - 2014 Journal Citation Reports). Download here.
Horaţiu Rusu and Andrei Gheorghiţă (2014) Transnational Solidarity and Public Support for the EU Enlargement. Sociologia - Slovak Sociological Review 46 (3): 261-282. (ISI impact factor 0.240 - 2012 Journal Citation Reports). Download here.
Andrei Gheorghiţă (2013) Book review: Kees Aarts, André Blais, and Hermann Schmitt (eds.), Political Leaders and Democratic Elections. Social Change Review 11 (2): 153-155. Download here.
Book chapter linked to the project:
Andrei Gheorghiță (2015) Determining the Components of Leader Effects in a Post-Communist Context. In Marina Costa Lobo and John Curtice (eds.), Personality Politics? The Role of Leader Evaluations in Democratic Elections, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 191-214. See here.
Reports
The final report (aggregate 2013-2015) to UEFISCDI in English can be accessed here.
The aggregate intermediate report 2013-2014 to UEFISCDI in English can be accessed here.
The 2013 annual report to UEFISCDI can be accessed here in Romanian or English.
Project supported by a research grant of the Romanian Ministry of Education, CNCS-UEFISCDI
Contract no. 56/30.04.2013
Time frame: May 1st, 2013 - October 31st, 2015
Research team:
Dr. Andrei Gheorghiţă (post-doctoral researcher)
Dr. Grigore Pop-Elecheş (mentor)
Project description (summary):
Political leaders are credited with a significant and growing impact on the election results in Western societies. This long-term shift from political parties to leaders as main actors on the electoral scene is explained as an aggregate effect of a sequence of transformations: changes in the patterns of mass communication in the age of electronic media, erosion of traditional alignments, increase in the complexity of political issues correlated with a shift of interest from local to national politics, the internationalization of politics. On the other side, the Eastern post-communist block may have traced a different pathway to the same outcome of personalization, given the impact of several locally relevant variables: a tradition of strong leaders, further strengthened in the recent totalitarian past, a widespread option towards semi-presidential systems, with directly elected presidents and frequent unclear power settlements between the president and the prime-minister, a lack of solid party alignments, and an accelerated development of media systems. This project aims to investigate the magnitude and sources of variation in leader effects in the particular context of new democracies in Central and Eastern Europe. Two core directions are to be investigated: (1) the magnitude and evolution of leader effects in CEE countries during post-communism; (2) the variations in leader effects in relation to voter, leader, party and system characteristics, but also to campaign context.
Project objectives:
(1) To devise a region-specific theoretical and conceptual framework of analysis for the personalization of electoral politics in CEE post-communist countries.
(2) To assess the magnitude and evolution of leader effects on party vote in CEE countries during the transition and democratization period.
(3) To assess the variations in the magnitude of leader effects that are due to individual factors (both voter characteristics and leader characteristics), to party-related factors, and to system-specific factors.
(4) To investigate the mechanisms by which campaign discourse activates candidate-specific personality traits that become salient for an electoral race.
Methodology:
In order to reach the abovementioned objectives, the research design employs a rather complex ensemble of both quantitative and qualitative methods and tools. Broadly, it combines (a) statistical modelling on large-scale datasets for O2 and O3 (namely CSES modules 1-3 and further) with (b) document analysis for O1 and O3 (on party manifestoes, electoral legislation and candidate vita), (c) focus groups for O4, and media and discourse analysis for O4. Thus, it combines three levels of analysis: country, party, and individual level.
Expected outcomes:
At least two international conference presentations, at least two articles submitted to ISI ranked scientific journals.
Main evolutions:
WP1: Theoretical and methodological substantiation of the project
2013:
• Library stage at the Central European University in Budapest (October 28-November 28).
• Identification and coverage of the newest literature on conditions mediating the manifestation of leader effects:
→ voters characteristics (political involvement, political sophistication, party identification, ideological orientation, news consumption, early vs. late deciders, church attendance, social class, risk orientation, age, sex);
→ leader characteristics (personality traits, incumbent vs. challenger, experience, age, sex);
→ party characteristics (size, ideological family, organisational structure, government vs. opposition, age);
→ system characteristics (party system, electoral system, political system, election type, political polarization).
• Identification and coverage of the literature on electoral systems, party systems and leaders in several CEE countries: Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia.
2014:
• Course of 'Multilevel Modelling' at Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona, Summer School of Survey Methodology (July 9-11).
WP2. Document analysis
2013:
• Coverage of CEE elections: Croatia 2007, Czech Republic 2006 and 2010, Estonia 2011, Latvia 2010, Poland 2005 and 2007, Romania 2009, Slovakia 2010, Slovenia 2008.
2014:
• Coverage of the following CEE elections: Czech Republic 1996, Hungary 1998, Poland 1997, Romania 1996, 2004 and 2012, Russia 1999, Slovenia 1996, Ukraine 1998, Belarus 2008, Montenegro 2012, Serbia 2012.
WP3. Data preparation for longitudinal statistical analysis
2013:
• Preparation of individual level data for the following CEE elections: Croatia 2007, Czech Republic 2006 and 2010, Estonia 2011, Latvia 2010, Poland 2005 and 2007, Romania 2009, Slovakia 2010, Slovenia 2008.
• Identification of additional databases in ZACAT archive.
2014:
• Preparation of individual level data for the following CEE elections: Czech Republic 1996, Hungary 1998, Poland 1997, Romania 1996, 2004 and 2012, Russia 1999, Slovenia 1996, Ukraine 1998, Belarus 2008, Montenegro 2012, Serbia 2012.
• The list of elections, parties and leaders considered can be found here.
WP4. Statistical analysis of large-scale data
2014:
• Models construction and testing for the effects of voter characteristics, party characteristics and candidate characteristics on the magnitude of leader effects.
• Final models run for the impact of voter characteristics and party characteristics on the magnitude of leader effects. Feed-back on the findings received during several international and national conferences.
• For a closer look on the models and variables included, click here.
2015:
• Final models run for the impact of leader characteristics on the magnitude of leader effects. Feed-back on the findings received during two international conferences.
• For a closer look on the models and variables included, click here.
WP5. Data collection for the 2014 presidential election in Romania
2014:
• Focus groups/interviews with voting age respondents investigating how campaign discourse activates candidate-specific traits that become salient for the electoral race.
• First page journal articles on the most salient five candidates in the presidential elections are archived for future analyses on how media frames personal traits. Target journals: Adevărul, Evenimentul Zilei, România liberă, Jurnalul naţional.
• Content of websites of the main presidential candidates (Klaus Iohannis, Victor Ponta, Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, Elena Udrea, Monica Macovei) is saved for further analyses: electoral programmes, promotional materials, press releases, interviews, etc.
2015:
• Interviews with voting age respondents on top politicians personal traits.
WP6. Analysis of interview/focus group and media analysis data
2015:
• Bi-directional approach to understanding how political leaders shape citizens' impressions of their personality traits.
• Analysis of media data to investigate candidates' image priming strategies, applied to first page journal articles (media side) and candidate electoral manifestoes, press releases, interviews, advertising, blog entries (candidate side).
• Assessment of citizens' impressions of candidates' personalities based on interviews/focus groups. Complementary additional information is issued through post-election survey data, with an extensive battery of questions requesting respondents to rate ten personal attributes of Victor Ponta and Klaus Iohannis on a 0-10 scale.
WP7. Dissemination of project's results, reports, and networking
Results
Conference papers:
2015
'Leader characteristics and the personalization of electoral politics in Central and Eastern European democracies' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the 5th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, June 25-27, 2015. (EN)
'The personalization of electoral politics and leader characteristics in the Eastern post-communist bloc' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the 12th Conference of the European Sociological Association, Prague, August 25-28, 2015. (EN)
‘Caracteristici ale liderilor și personalizarea politicii electorale în democrațiile Europei Centrale și de Est’, paper to be presented at the Annual Conference of the Romanian Sociological Society and the International Colloquium of Social Sciences and Communication Studies ACUM 2015, Brașov, November 19-21, 2015. (RO)
2014
'Voter characteristics and the personalization of electoral behaviour in Romania', paper presented at the 2014 International Conference of the Romanian Sociological Society, Iaşi, May 9-10, 2014. (EN)
'The personalization of electoral decision and voter characteristics in a post-communist context', paper presented at the 37th Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Rome, July 4-7, 2014. (EN)
'Election studies in Romania: where are we now?', presentation at the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Plenary Meeting in Berlin, October 8-11, 2014. (EN)
'Party characteristics and leader effects in post-communist polities' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the European Sociological Association (ESA) RN36 Midterm Conference '25 Years after the Communism: East and West of Europe in Search of Solidarity', Gdansk, October 16-18, 2014. (EN)
'Personalization of electoral politics and party characteristics in Central and Eastern European democracies' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the Conference 'What's next for democratic capitalism?', Warsaw, November 7-8, 2014. (EN)
'Candidate-centred electoral politics and party characteristics in new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe' (co-author Mircea Comşa), paper presented at the Conference 'Ideologies, Values, and Political Behaviours in Central and Eastern Europe', Timişoara, December 12-13, 2014. (RO)
2013
'Caracteristicile liderilor politici şi personalizarea politicii electorale în România postcomunistă', paper presented at the 2013 Annual Conference of the Society of Romanian Sociologists, Iaşi, May 16-18, 2013. (RO)
'Social solidarity in distorted times: Unfolding the Romanian case' (co-author Horatiu Rusu), lucrare prezentata la 11th Conference of the European Sociological Association, Turin, August 28-31, 2013. (EN)
'Caracteristicile personale ale liderilor politici şi impactul acestora asupra deciziei de vot: cazul României', paper presented at the Annual Conference of Research in Sociology and Social Work, Sibiu, October 11-12, 2013. (RO)
'Public spending and social solidarity' (co-author Horatiu Rusu), paper presented at the Annual Conference of Research in Sociology and Social Work, Sibiu, October 11-12, 2013. (EN)
Articles:
Andrei Gheorghiță (2015) Voter Characteristics and Leader Effects in a Post-Communist Context: The Case of the 2012 Legislative Elections in Romania. Romanian Journal of Political Science 15 (1). (ISI impact factor 0.250 - 2014 Journal Citation Reports). Download here.
Mircea Comșa and Andrei Gheorghiță (2016) 'Many', 'half' or 'one out of two'? Assessing the effectiveness of counter-biasing techniques in reducing self-reported turnout. Revista de cercetare și intervenție socială 55. (ISI impact factor 0.798 - 2014 Journal Citation Reports). Download here.
Horaţiu Rusu and Andrei Gheorghiţă (2014) Transnational Solidarity and Public Support for the EU Enlargement. Sociologia - Slovak Sociological Review 46 (3): 261-282. (ISI impact factor 0.240 - 2012 Journal Citation Reports). Download here.
Andrei Gheorghiţă (2013) Book review: Kees Aarts, André Blais, and Hermann Schmitt (eds.), Political Leaders and Democratic Elections. Social Change Review 11 (2): 153-155. Download here.
Book chapter linked to the project:
Andrei Gheorghiță (2015) Determining the Components of Leader Effects in a Post-Communist Context. In Marina Costa Lobo and John Curtice (eds.), Personality Politics? The Role of Leader Evaluations in Democratic Elections, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 191-214. See here.
Reports
The final report (aggregate 2013-2015) to UEFISCDI in English can be accessed here.
The aggregate intermediate report 2013-2014 to UEFISCDI in English can be accessed here.
The 2013 annual report to UEFISCDI can be accessed here in Romanian or English.
Andrei Gheorghiţă (Pagina personală)
Secţiuni
Informații de contact:
Universitatea Lucian Blaga din Sibiu
Colectivul de Sociologie şi Asistenţă Socială
Sibiu, Str. Lucian Blaga, Nr. 2-4
Tel./Fax: +40.269.212.970
E-mail:
andrei.gheorghita[at]ulbsibiu[dot]ro